ATLANTA — Georgia’s race for governor heads into Tuesday’s election with Republican Rick Jackson and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms separated by only a few percentage points in recent polls, leaving voters with a competitive contest and no clear polling consensus on the winner.
A review of publicly available surveys as of Nov. 2 shows small leads for both candidates across different polls. The latest surveys reviewed favor Bottoms, while earlier October polling gave Jackson a narrow advantage. Those differences are small enough that the outcome remains uncertain.
The candidates are seeking to succeed Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who is term-limited. Bottoms is a former Atlanta mayor, and Jackson is the founder of Jackson Healthcare.
What the latest polls show
A State Navigate survey conducted Oct. 23–27 put Bottoms at 50% and Jackson at 47%, including respondents who leaned toward a candidate. It surveyed 679 likely voters and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
State Navigate recruited participants through text messages directing them to an online survey and weighted the results to reflect the expected electorate. The organization said the poll was not sponsored by a candidate or candidate’s committee.
An Echelon Insights survey conducted for NetChoice Oct. 16–23 also showed a narrow Bottoms lead: 49% to 48%, with 3% unsure. Its Georgia sample included 508 voters in the likely electorate, with a reported margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 points.
Earlier polling pointed the other way. A University of Georgia survey conducted Oct. 7–15 showed Jackson at 46% and Bottoms at 45%, with 8% undecided, according to Ballotpedia’s polling compilation. That survey included 1,000 likely voters and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points.
What those numbers suggest
News Now Georgia’s assessment: The polling supports describing this as a close race in which either candidate could win. Each of those candidate leads is smaller than the survey’s reported margin of error. Polling uncertainty also includes who ultimately turns out, whether respondents accurately report their preferences and how well the survey represents voters.
The order in which polls were conducted does not, by itself, prove a late surge. Different organizations use different samples, questions and weighting methods. A one-point Jackson lead in one survey followed by a three-point Bottoms lead in another cannot automatically be treated as a four-point movement among the same voters.
Polling averages can differ, too. The 270toWin five-poll average reviewed Nov. 2 showed Jackson at 48.8% and Bottoms at 47.6%. Its displayed average did not include the newer State Navigate survey. That illustrates why readers should check which polls an average includes before treating it as the latest overall picture.
A forecast is different from a poll
The supplied graphic accompanying this article describes a 54.7% chance of winning for Jackson. Its source and update date are not visible, and News Now Georgia has not independently verified that figure as current.
A forecast’s chance of winning is different from the percentage of voters supporting a candidate. A 54.7% winning probability does not mean 54.7% of voters back that candidate. Forecast maps also depict modeled expectations rather than counted election results.
In a close race, participation matters
With the race this close, making your voice heard at the ballot box is especially important. Regardless of which candidate you support, do not assume the outcome is settled or that your vote will not matter. Polls describe a sample of voters; the election is decided by the ballots voters actually cast.
For Southeast Georgia residents, the statewide numbers offer context but do not establish how any individual county will vote. A statewide survey should not be presented as a separate forecast for Liberty, Chatham, Bryan or the region’s other counties.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. According to Georgia’s official election guidance, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., and anyone in line by 7 p.m. may vote. Voters must use their assigned Election Day precinct and bring an accepted photo ID.
Check your polling location and sample ballot through the Georgia Secretary of State’s My Voter Page.
Polling information reviewed Nov. 2, 2026. Percentages are survey estimates, not election returns.
Yolonda Harris
News Now Georgia
Leave a Reply